• Will the Eagles improve their pass protection against the Ravens? Philadelphia’s offensive line has been one of the worst in allowing pressure on a per-snap basis, but Baltimore hasn’t ramped up the heat regularly either.
• Can the Commanders get their run game going against the Titans? Washington’s rushing attack has slowed during its losing streak, and Tennessee has been stingy against runs.
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, examining the niche, micro-level battles adds an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 12’s focus on Josh Jacobs against the 49ers’ heavy boxes (75.1 PFF rushing grade, 32 yards after contact and three touchdowns) and Lamar Jackson against the Chargers’ zone coverage (77.8 PFF passing grade, 12-of-18 passing) played large roles in dictating which teams won. Now, let’s flip the script to Week 13.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
EAGLES’ PASS PROTECTION VS. RAVENS
The best game in Week 13 pits two contenders against one another. The Eagles and Ravens boast two of the NFL’s best rushing attacks (and running backs), plus good front-four units, which makes this contest almost a reflection pool. What might be most fascinating is watching two strangely below-average units go head-to-head.
The Eagles’ interior offensive line — with Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens and Mekhi Becton — hasn’t missed much of a beat without future Hall of Famer Jason Kelce. The unit ranks sixth in PFF overall grade, but pass protection has been more of a struggle. Philadelphia’s interior ranks only 15th in pass-blocking grade — and, by extension, the Eagles’ pass protection numbers have been shockingly bad. The Eagles are dead last in pressure rate and hurry percentage, not to mention 28th in sack rate.
On the other side of the ball, that trio will face off against a scary defensive line pair in Travis Jones and Nnamdi Madubuike. As a unit, the Ravens’ interior defenders rank eighth in PFF overall grade, but the bunch is only 17th in PFF pass-rushing grade. Although Jones and Madubuike have combined for 61 pressures, neither has recorded a pass-rush win rate higher than 11.3%. As a broader team, the Ravens haven’t been exceptional at generating pressure, slotting 21st in pressure and sack rates.
The catalyst for whoever wins this war in the trenches is Jalen Hurts’ play. The Eagles signal-caller has fared decently in avoiding sacks, being taken down on only 20.3% of pressures — which feels low relative to how much he’s been under duress. But Hurts has not fared well under pressure, as reflected by his 46.4 PFF overall grade — which ranks 31st out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
Will Jones, Madubuike and recently activated Michael Pierce break through the middle of Philadelphia’s offensive line to throw Hurts off his spot? Or will Hurts have adequate time to sit in the pocket and potentially attack the Ravens’ weaker secondary? Whoever emerges victorious in that micro-war will probably get the edge in his high-stakes game.
CHARGERS‘ DEFENSIVE LINE VS. FALCONS‘ OFFENSIVE LINE
Chargers-Falcons may not be in primetime, but it does offer an intriguing look at two current playoff teams looking to get back on track. Atlanta’s offense against Los Angeles’ vaunted defense should involve some high-level maneuvering, especially along the line of scrimmage.
The Falcons boast the sixth-best offensive line in football by PFF overall grade. Perusing the team’s starters offers a glimpse into why: Only one (Ryan Neuzil) has posted a sub-60.0 PFF overall grade. Left tackle Jake Matthews (81.5 PFF pass-blocking grade) and right guard Chris Lindstrom (91.5 PFF overall grade) have played at the sky-high level we’re accustomed to.
But the Chargers’ defensive line has quietly been disruptive all year. Los Angeles ranks seventh in PFF run-defense grade among its edge rushers and defensive linemen, plus 13th in pass-rush win rate. Khalil Mack (91.3 PFF run-defense grade, 31 pressures), Poona Ford (82.4 PFF overall grade) and Tuli Tuipulotu (30 pressures) headline the group, while Joey Bosa is still a force to be reckoned with, even in a down year. The Chargers also have depth in Teair Tart (69.2 PFF overall grade), Morgan Fox and Bud Dupree — the latter two of whom have crossed the 20-pressure threshold.
Will Atlanta hold up to give Kirk Cousins time to throw and clear lanes for Bijan Robinson in the run game? Or will the Chargers control the line of scrimmage, keep points off the board to help their shorthanded offense and correct their recent defensive issues? Whoever claims bragging rights in that department will probably win the game.
KYLER MURRAY HOLDING ONTO THE BALL VS. VIKINGS
Cardinals-Vikings doesn’t offer quite as much promise as it would have if Arizona were still atop the NFC West, but this game still doubles as a potential playoff preview. And who doesn’t want to see Kyler Murray and the Cardinals’ soaring offense take on one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses?
Murray’s tendency this year has been to hold onto the ball to scramble — and be a playmaker. His 2.87-second average time to throw is the 16th slowest among qualified quarterbacks, although his splits on throwing under/over 2.5 seconds are relatively even. That aligns with Murray’s play style: His 81.5 PFF overall grade when holding the ball longer ranks ninth among qualifiers, compared to his 76.0 PFF overall grade when getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less, which ranks 17th.
Brian Flores’ defense has been rather effective in both situations, but probably more so against quick passes. Minnesota ranks second in defensive EPA per play when quarterbacks hold onto the ball for less than 2.5 seconds while allowing the third-lowest opposing passer rating (80.2). Those rankings jump to eighth and 13th, respectively, when quarterbacks can occupy 2.5 or more seconds.
The bottom line is that if Murray can extend plays, it favors the Cardinals’ offense. But if Flores’ blitz packages can get home and keep Murray within the confines of the pocket, the scale should tip toward the Vikings.
STEELERS‘ RED-ZONE OFFENSE VS. BENGALS
Another compelling game that might flow under the radar, Steelers-Bengals gives fans a glimpse at the AFC North leader — but a team clawing for its playoff lives. It feels as if both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati need a win in Week 13, and red-zone performance may drive that result.
Even in its dismal road showing at Cleveland last Thursday, Pittsburgh moved the ball into enemy territory fairly well. Issues arose in the red zone, though — a common refrain for much of this year. The Steelers rank 26th in red-zone EPA per play, converting only 44.7% of drives entering the opposing 20-yard line into touchdowns — the fourth-worst rate in football. Dovetailing with that is bad red-zone play from Russell Wilson, whose 53.8 PFF passing grade ranks 25th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defense hasn’t done well to limit opposing offenses deep in their territory. Cincinnati ranks 31st in red-zone EPA per play allowed, permitting touchdowns on a whopping 75% of red-zone possessions — the worst figure in the NFL.
Pittsburgh’s offense may be able to exploit a Bengals defense that’s disappointed all year, but will Wilson and company punch the ball in or will Cincinnati finally rectify a major issue and prevent red-zone touchdowns? In a game that feels like a toss-up, that small detail will prove significant.
