The Miami Dolphins are reportedly not offering quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a “market value” contract extension, according to ESPN’s Jeff Darlington. Here, what choices do the Dolphins have?
The Miami Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa are believed to be working on a contract extension for the Pro Bowl quarterback that would keep him with the team beyond the end of the upcoming season. The goal was to have the contract completed before the start of training camp at the end of July, but on Tuesday, ESPN’s Jeff Darlington, a former Dolphins beat writer with lots of contacts to the team and beyond, reported, “Right now, the Dolphins are not offering the contract that is the market value based on [the Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence] deals that were done.”
Goff’s deal with the Detroit Lions, signed in mid-May, was a four-year, $212 million extension including $170 million guaranteed, with $113.6 million fully guaranteed. The deal brings Goff to an average of $53 million per season, with salary camp numbers of $27.2 million in 2024, $32.6 million in 2025, $69.6 million in 2026, $54.6 million in 2027, and $61.6 million in 2028. The 2029 season is a void year in the contract. He is currently the third-highest paid quarterback in the league, based on average per year value.
Lawrence’s new contract, signed last week, keeps him with the Jacksonville Jaguars through the 2030 season and adds five years on to his existing rookie contract, which runs through 2025. The extension adds $275 million over the five years, including $200 million guaranteed with $142 million fully guaranteed. Larwence’s salary cap numbers are $15 million and $17 million in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, the last of his rookie contract, then are $24 million in 2026, $25 million in 2027, $47 million in 2028, $78.5 million in 2029, and $74.8 million in 2030. He has two void years, the 2031 and 2032 seasons, that will accelerate prorated signing bonus accounting without a new contract worked out by the end of the 2030 season.
Larwence’s deal tied him with the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow for the top average value per year mark at $55 million. Burrow signed his contract extension with the Bengals in September 2023, keeping him under contract through the 2029 season with a five-year, $275 million deal including $219 million guaranteed with $146.5 million fully guaranteed. His 2024 salary cap number is $29.6 million in the final year of his rookie contract, then when the extension kicks in, it will be $46.3 million in 2025, $48.3 million in 2026, $52.3 million in 2027, $53.5 million in 2028, and $57.5 million in 2029. The 2030 through 2032 seasons are void years, which will including a $9 million cap hit in 2030.
Which brings us back to Tagovailoa. What is the market for the Dolphins’ quarterback? Before Lawrence signed his new contract, we broke down the top quarterback contracts, taking a look at the top ten deals based on average value. That analysis projected Tagovailoa to warrant a five-year, $268 million deal with $179.6 million guaranteed, giving him a $53.6 million per year contract, placing him ahead of Goff but behind Burrow.
With the Lawrence contract now added into the mix, Tagovailoa may be looking for something that pushes him over the $55 million per year mark. Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating and yards per attempt in 2022, then led the league in passing yardage in 2023. Both Lawrence and Tagovailoa have been selected to one Pro Bowl. Larence has a 1-1 record in the playoffs while Tagovailoa is 0-1. Lawrence reaching the $55 million mark provides Tagovailoa a legitimate argument to surpass that value.
But, what are Miami’s options when it comes to keeping their quarterback under contract beyond this season?
Tagovailoa is entering the final year of his rookie contract, the fifth-year option seasons allocated for first-round draft picks. The deal pays him $23.2 million this year, fully guaranteed. Any new contract would likely look to replace that cap number, but Miami could simply look to keep that in place, having already budgeted for it this year, with the goal of making next year’s salary cap number fairly low.
If Miami were to have Tagovailoa play out the 2024 season on the fifth-year option, then franchise tag him for the 2025 season, they would then be on the hook for an estimated $42.2 million fully-guaranteed salary for that season.
The Dolphins could then franchise tag Tagovailoa again for the 2026 season. That move would guarantee Tagovailoa at least 120 percent of his 2025 franchise tag salary, or somewhere around $50.6 million.
The Dolphins could realistically keep Tagovailoa through the 2026 seasons without a new contract, paying him $23.2 million, $42.2 million, and $50.6 million. That works out to a three-year average of $38.6 million. The team keeps him for less than the average value of a new contract, but they do not benefit from a lower cap number by spreading a signing bonus over multiple years. Tagovailoa does not receive any security from injuries and does not reach the full value that a new contract could provide – things that would likely immediately sour the relationship between the quarterback and the team.
Technically, the Dolphins could then tag Tagovailoa a third time for the 2027 season – but that comes with a 144 percent increase at a minimum, making that year a $72.9 million season – not exactly something the salary cap would allow.
Ideally, the Dolphins and Tagovailoa find common ground, with both sides compromising and coming to an agreement on a long-term contract that provides the Dolphins with cap space for the next few years while giving Tagovailoa the security of a multi-year deal. Miami could look to take this to a year-to-year situation, risking alienating their Pro Bowl quarterback and costing the team large chunks of their salary cap space.
